Termeni & conditii
Reset Click on a country for further analysis. Risk scores and commentary provided by Fitch Solutions. Businesses have arguably never faced such a breadth of challenges as they do today.
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From emerging economies to mature ones, business and trade are increasingly susceptible to uncertainty, with political risks posing a threat to their business global trading site- ul oficial. Transition to a more multi-polar world order of protectionism is likely to continue. The US and China are intensifying their geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific region and, with both stepping up military activities in the South China Sea, an unintended military clash is possible.
As Fitch Solutions note, will be a busy year for opțiunea pool este in emerging markets and some developed states — which could heighten the climate of political volatility. We consider these further in our regional analysis. Uncertainty ahead Isolationist and protectionist sentiments and practices have risen in some countries, halting, at least momentarily, the process of globalization.
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Actions in one economy create reactions in others. Against this backdrop, it could prove more difficult for nations to make collective progress on global challenges. Global trade is increasingly afflicted by uncertainty, with perhaps the biggest current cause being the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China.
An export-heavy economy such as Germany is inevitably impacted. This uncertainty is compounded by Brexit, the exact nature and effects of which are still unclear. Economic uncertainty can play out socially and politically, and can easily change form and spill across continents.
More than ever, political risks in one part of the world or sector are likely to spill over into other regions or sectors, often causing unexpected harm. What is most noticeable today is how many of the macro threats are in so-called developed economies as opposed to emerging markets. Vigilance and broad, systemic risk analysis will be vital to minimizing these risks.
It has already seen the longest shutdown of government in American history.
A more activist House could launch investigations into perceived wrongdoings by President Trump or others. Trade tariffs and geopolitical disputes with China could escalate inbringing the risk of further Chinese retaliation and US counter-retaliation.
Marsh Political Risk Map
In addition, Trump's re-imposition of sanctions on Iran in November risks generating a tougher stance by Tehran, potentially raising the risk of global trading site- ul oficial, or the start of a new rapprochement. Another focus will be to ensure that the rapprochement with North Korea remains on track.
Europe The UK's politics in and beyond will remain focused on Brexit negotiations and subsequent transition period out of the EU. Brexit aside, the EU will be in a state of transition in as it prepares for parliamentary elections in May and new presidents of the European Commission and European Central Bank, and European Council, in November and December respectively.
Elsewhere, the possibility that German Chancellor Angela Merkel may step down early, rather than serve out her full term to Germany's autumn general elections, means that the EU could face a leadership vacuum.
French President Emmanuel Macron could possibly seek to fill the void, but his declining popularity at home may mean that his attention is focused on domestic matters. Meanwhile, the Ukraine conflict could worsen, especially if President Petro Poroshenko or his successor seeks to bolster nationalism in an election year and Russia responds. There was also continued unrest in Catalonia.
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Africa The African region once again saw some of the biggest improvements in political risk, and also some of the most notable deteriorations, according to Fitch Solutions.
In South Africa, the resignation of President Jacob Zuma and his replacement by the pro-reform Cyril Ramaphosa in February ended a period of large public protests. Mozambique made progress toward a peace deal between the ruling Frelimo party and the rebel Renamo organization, while in South Sudan a peace deal was signed between President Salva Kiir Mayardit and rebel leader Riek Machar.
Zambia saw growing social tension over rapidly deteriorating economic conditions and public concern about rising debt levels, with opposition groups seeking the impeachment of President Edgar Lungu.
Mali experienced increased social unrest in the wake of the August presidential elections, as well as persistent ethnic conflict and insurgencies in the centre and north of the country. In Algeria, meanwhile, there is rising uncertainty over the presidential election. This will make policy-making difficult ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections late in In Cameroon there was some discontent over the October re-election of President Paul Biya and the postponement of planned municipal and legislative elections to In the Central African Republic, the humanitarian environment deteriorated further while a power struggle between armed groups continues, increasing the possibility of a return to large-scale violence between Muslims and Christians.
In Chile, the December election of President Sebastian Pinera ended a period of uncertainty, with economic improvement and lower unemployment. Meanwhile, Paraguay experienced improved clarity on policy and an easing of social tensions following the election of President Mario Abdo Benitez in April. The situation on the ground could remain volatile for the foreseeable future. Middle East While the balance of power in Syria has shifted in favour of President Bashar al-Assad, a peace settlement appears unlikely in the immediate future.
The conflict poses the risk of a clash between the Russian and US militaries. Iran faces a particularly challenging as it marks the 40th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution in February. The US could turn up pressure on Iran inraising the possibility of military confrontation, which could be catastrophic for the global economy through the disruption of oil supplies.
The main risk is a breakdown of the rapprochement between the US and North Korea. The three countries plan further summits inbut global trading site- ul oficial is unclear whether tangible progress can be made.
In China, meanwhile, President Xi Jinping's abolition of presidential term limits in and his consolidation of power bode well for structural economic reforms over the coming years. They pose long-term risks, however, to political stability by eroding checks and balances on policymaking. China's worsening ties with the US over trade, tariffs, human rights, and technology continue to be the main challenge.
Risk management and insurance recommendations It is vital for companies to appreciate and assess the potential impact of the breadth of political risks they face, as well as the systemic nature of these risks and possible knock-on effects, which often reach far beyond their originating country or sector. It is also important to consider the geographically diffuse nature of many political risks, with G7 nations and other mature economies recently experiencing, and arguably adding to the perception of, an increase in political risk.
Political risks are typically difficult to predict; however, companies can analyze and model risk by clearly quantifying their business operations and pressure points. It is inadvisable to assess any one political risk in isolation, or to perceive political risks in too short a timeframe.
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Political risk insurance is part of being resilient against volatility. While political risks are typically not directly controllable, in many instances they can be mitigated through credit and political risk insurance, providing greater confidence in the benefits of the opportunity. The insurance market for political risks is growing.
Insurers have stronger analytical teams and more data, but the breadth of potentially catastrophic risks has increased, as has the perception of what constitutes risk. However, this strategy has the potential to leave significant gaps.
Political risk insurance can help bridge gaps by including coverage for both perils but, more importantly, by also addressing loss of an investment or contract due to government action or inactivity where there may be no physical damage.
Contracts for the supply of goods and services in emerging countries, with government or private entities, always carry an implied exposure to some underlying political or economic risks. Increased global protectionism, the restriction of hard currency payments to overseas companies, and the imposition of trade embargoes and sanctions are recurring issues in countries where governments attempt to enforce foreign policy objectives, influence domestic public opinion, or manage economic issues.
Moreover, companies may find themselves faced with internal counterparty limit constraints that keep them from competing effectively in target markets. Contracts can be covered for terms of up to three to seven years or, if a buyer holds sovereign status, up to 20 years. Insurance is not a panacea for every risk, but it may enable a company to reduce the uncertainty and volatility around a major contract or investment to protect shareholder interests.
This map rates countries on the basis of political and economic stability, giving insight global trading site- ul oficial where risks may be most likely to emerge and issues to be aware of in each country.